Clinton's University of Toledo Rally Draws Few

One day to go before Ohio goes to the polls to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. In the past month, Clinton has gone from a certain double-digit lead over Obama to uncertainty. Two recent polls are in conflict: the Columbus Dispatch pegs Clinton with a 16 point lead while the Cleveland Plain Dealer indicates a statistical tie.

Last Sunday (2/24) Barack Obama visited The University of Toledo's Savage Hall (the largest auditorium facility on campus). The line stretched across campus and over the Ottawa River. In the end, a few thousand were turned away because the hall was packed.

Today marks the first day of Spring Break, one of the earliest Spring Breaks I have ever heard of. I cannot help but recall that age old college tradition of taking the trip to a lower latitudes,spending a lazy week on the Gulf coast. But back in my day we were not on a semester system, and spring break fell on the last week of March. Nowadays, these students get to celebrate spring weeks before it truly arrives to this region. And on the gulf coast? Well, for those going this year, it looks like Mother Nature will be kind, at least during the day. I doubt there will be many nights walking along the beach in a bathing suit with temperatures in the 40s.

But I digress. The point is, this week there isn't much happening on campus. The cafeterias are closed, Starbucks is cutting its hours short. Students, normally making this a rather lively campus, are nowhere to be seen.

Or so I thought. On my way into campus this morning I noticed a considerable police presence, and a sign pointing to my normal lot indicating "Clinton Parking -->". Odd, I thought, campus seems pretty much dead. So I pulled into my lot, and easily found a space to park, a rare feat during the normal school year.

On the walk to my office I noticed the Clinton campaign bus parked behind the Student Union building and how this contrasted against a campus where the only activity was coming from the construction workers restoring the Field House.

An hour later my office mate joined me. He and another coworker decided on a whim to attend the event. They had no difficulty getting in at the last minute. Their estimate of the crowd there to see Clinton was between 300-400 total; 150-200 if you don't include the press and security staffed.

Not a good showing for Toledo, Ohio - a typical Ohio blue-collar town.

I also can't help but wonder: How out of touch is her advance team to schedule a campus event right on the beginning of Spring Break? Granted, other Ohio Universities have their spring breaks later in the month, but didn't anyone on her staff bother to check? Even despite all that, why such a low turnout?! Toledo is not a college town. You would think, with such a Democratic presence and so many blue-collar, union workers, Clinton could have drummed up a larger crowd.

My analysis: this does not bode well for Ms. Clinton's chances of taking Ohio, no matter what the polls say.